Futurology is a systematic forecasting of the future based
on present trends. It involves gaining a long-term business advantage,
flexibility in thinking about how to make the most of opportunities, and
awareness of how current technologies might become obsolete. One way to predict
the future is to look at trends and extrapolate to the future. It is also
possible to look at emerging technologies and see how they might impact on
other areas.
Moore's Law made by Gordon Moore of Intel was a general
observation on the density of transistors in a silicon chip. This seemed to
double every eighteen months to 2 years. It is often now used as a guide to the
improvements in processing power. Kurzweil extends Moore’s Law with the Law of
Accelerating Returns. This has become a goal for development teams as a
doubling of processing power every two years provides the stimulus for upgrades
and sales.
Massive changes in technologies and their costs can be very
difficult to predict. Areas such as Quantum Computing, Light-Based Processors,
Nanotechnology, and DNA-based Computing may become commonplace in the home.
Forty years ago, very few people would have wanted a computer at home. Fifteen
years ago, a 10Gb hard disk for a home computer would have been seen in terms
of “you would never want to store that much data”.
Ensuring that we waste as few resources as possible is a key
concept, and "sustainability" is important. Wind-up laptops are
already available, and equipment needs to be more recyclable. Priorities
change, and netbooks are becoming popular because you don’t need processing
power for most people's computing needs.
The future will be shaped by social, economic, and political
issues, as well as technological advancements. It is unlikely to be a logical
progression, and it does not guarantee survivors. Better interaction, new and
efficient ways of working with others, and developments like the Wii have shown
a way forward.
Display technologies, location-sensitive technologies,
intelligent agent support, gesture recognition, the use of virtual
environments, smart socket technology, and gaming technology are all areas of
development for the future. However, prediction is a dangerous game, and
Bluetooth is an example of a technology that was designed for business purposes
but ended up being used for blind dating and free photo sharing by teenagers.
Futurology plays a significant role in the development of
smart systems and artificial intelligence in various industries, such as
transportation and manufacturing. For instance, self-driving cars and drones
use machine learning algorithms to make independent decisions based on data
from various sensors and cameras.
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